More Than Numbers: What the Current Census Fight Means for Black and Brown Power

 If done right, the decennial census can take us closer to the promise of equal representation under the law. 

Our political power begins with being counted. Every 10 years, our government must comply with one of the few mandates written into our nation’s founding: that Congress conduct a regular census to count the nation’s population. The census is the foundation for understanding who we are as a country, how congressional and legislative districts are formed and apportioned, and informs how trillions of taxpayer dollars are spent. Census data also enables us to see and analyze inequities in health outcomes, economic opportunities, and political participation. If done right, the decennial census can take us closer to the promise of equal representation under the law. 

Last month, the Census Bureau proposed a number of harmful changes that, if approved, would change who will be counted, how we will be counted, and where we’ll be counted.

Yet last month, the Census Bureau, the institution we rely on to conduct the census and collect arguably some of the most important data about who lives in the United States, proposed a number of harmful changes that, if approved, would change who will be counted, how we will be counted, and where we’ll be counted. If implemented, these changes will erase millions of people from political representation and eliminate critical demographic data used to understand communities and inform the distribution of resources.   

The Census Bureau’s proposals echo some of the oldest fights over representation in the United States and draw on the decennial census’ racist history, beginning with the Three-Fifths Compromise. For 75 years, enslaved Black people were counted as only three-fifths of a person for the purposes of congressional representation and taxation—using their presence to increase political representation for slave-owning states while denying Black people political power themselves. That history shows that the census has never just been about the numbers. It has always been about power. Who is counted determines who is represented, whose communities receive resources, and whose voices carry weight in our democracy.  

Who Will Be Counted

The Census Bureau is proposing to exclude millions of noncitizens from the population counts used to apportion seats in Congress, including people with work permits, international students, H-1B visa holders, refugees, asylees, DACA recipients, and people with temporary protected status (TPS). This will exclude millions of people who live in and contribute to communities across the United States, making apportionment counts less representative of immigrant communities.  

Since congressional seats are apportioned based on total population— not just the population of eligible voters—excluding noncitizens from census apportionment counts will mean that areas with larger immigrant populations will lose seats in the House of Representatives, and political power will be redistributed. This matters especially for Black and brown political power. The Black immigrant population has more than doubled in recent years. Research on citizen-based redistricting at the state level has found that shifts in political representation can disproportionately reduce the representational power of Black, Latino, and Asian American communities while shifting representation toward whiter communities, reinforcing existing racial disparities in political power.  

Changes to how noncitizens are counted could also have serious economic consequences. By creating uncertainty and fear among immigrant communities, the Census Bureau’s proposal will, in all likelihood, discourage participation and undermine the accuracy of the census for all U.S. residents. Census counts help determine trillions of federal dollars that are deployed through hundreds of federal programs such as Medicaid, SNAP, highway funds, and school lunches. While the proposal does not directly change population counts used to distribute these funds, inaccuracies or gaps in the data could put funding for entire communities at risk, leaving fewer resources for emergency rooms, classrooms, and roads. The result will lead to fewer resources and diminished political representation for all communities, with disproportionately harmful consequences for Black and brown communities. 

How We Will Be Counted

The Census Bureau is proposing no longer asking about race or ethnicity on the decennial census or other questionnaires used to enumerate the population. Every  census since the first count in 1790 has asked about race. This data is the backbone of countless other data collection and research endeavors, providing the population baseline to measure communities, needs, and outcomes. To now exclude that information would leave the country unable to describe its own population and our different lived experiences. Refusing to ask about race and ethnicity will not eradicate racism; it will only make it harder to see and fight against racial inequities and make it harder for Black and brown communities to have a representative and accountable government.  

Multiple federal statutes, passed by Congress and currently in effect, require race and ethnicity data to be enforced. The Census Bureau’s proposal would make civil rights laws like the Fair Housing Act, Voting Rights Act, and federal protections against employment discrimination extremely difficult, if not impossible, to enforce. Without underlying race and ethnicity data, we cannot identify systemic discrimination,  measure racial inequality, or hold institutions accountable for practices that disproportionately harm Black and brown communities. 

Where We Will Be Counted

The census counts each person at the place where they live and sleep most of the time. But a proposed change to the definition of a "usual residence" would require that a person be counted at a residence consistent with tax records; in other words, tax returns and W-2 forms would be treated as evidence of where a person lives. However, for many Americans, the address in an administrative record does  not necessarily reflect where they actually live. These changes would create new barriers to accurately counting people whose living arrangements do not align with tax records, including low-income residents, young children, and people who move often, like college students and military personnel. The resulting inaccuracies would further distort population counts our communities rely on to plan for schools, hospitals, housing, transportation, and other public needs. 

These are just three of the many consequential changes in a sweeping proposal that would reshape what the census tells us about who we are, how communities are faring, and how political representation and federal funds are distributed. Taken together, the proposed changes would make the 2030 Census harder to answer, harder to run, and would lead to inaccuracies that will stifle our ability to plan as a country for the future needs of our communities. 

Congress must act quickly to prevent these proposed changes and protect a fair and accurate census. Under the Constitution, Congress has broad authority over the census. Congress can use that authority to establish clear rules for who must be counted and where, ensuring the inclusion of all people and the preservation of demographic data used for congressional apportionment and redistricting. Congress can also use its oversight and appropriations powers to ensure the Census Bureau has the resources it needs to reach historically undercounted communities and ensure an accurate count.  

As we head into election season, we must hold candidates and elected officials accountable for protecting a fair, accurate, and complete census—one that sees Black and brown communities fully counted as part of this country.  The power and future of our multiracial democracy depend on it.

Read Dēmos' public comment opposing the proposed changes to the census